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Wastler: China's choice
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September 14, 2001: 4:21 p.m. ET
Cozying up to the Taliban could be costly to the world's most populous nation
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - A friend of mine with a lot of money asked me to pass this letter along:
Dear President Jiang Zemin,
Payback time is coming. It looks like it may be Afghanistan. I know that you two have been cozying up lately, and I wanted to give you a heads-up and ask you to please, please not get involved. It could cost me, and your countrymen, a lot of money.
You know what the situation is. Last week's despicable and sickening act of terrorism is pointing more and more at Osama bin Laden. He hangs out in Afghanistan with the blessing of the Taliban, the zealot thug government that runs the place. President Bush has made it pretty clear: Those responsible, and those who harbor those responsible, are going to get it. Hard.
Feeling the heat, Afghanistan is looking for friends. Big ones. Nuclear powered ones. It's only real hope is China. Russia really isn't a possibility, is it? Pakistan? Yes, but with India at the door that regime has all it can handle.
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Allen Wastler is managing editor and roving columnist for CNNfn.com. | |
It makes sense to expect your help, from the Taliban's point of view. You do, after all, consort with all their element: Syria, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Libya, Sudan. And China has been reported to be building economic ties to the Taliban. And the United States, from an ideological perspective, is your opposite.
That worries me. Sure, sure, you pledged to support the war on terrorism. But what you say and what gets done often aren't the same thing. Should I even start with the Spy Plane episode?
Naturally there will be plenty of world pressure for China to play along. But check out this quote from a Western diplomat on Reuters: "I'm not sure it's going to have much effect. China is going to continue to do what it believes to be in its best national interests."
OK, let's think about those interests. China's always been a big fish in the world trade pool: $474.3 billion in global trade in 2000 alone. That figure is likely to grow significantly once you sew up the World Trade Organization thing. And then there's the 2008 Olympics – more economic gains plus some image enhancement as well.
And then there is specifically us. We bought more than $100 billion worth of stuff from you in 2000, over 15 percent of your total trade. We're your No. 2 trading partner, after Japan.
And we'd like to be your No. 1. Boeing, for instance, is really anxious to sell you some planes. Over the next 20 years China is expected to buy up to 1,600 aircraft. I'd really like to see the blue chip outfit get it.
Then there's direct investment by U.S. companies, my companies, in China. More than 16 percent of the foreign direct investment in China comes from North America. "For companies that actually have invested in facilities and manufacture goods in China, a souring of relations poses a real risk," said a spokesman for the U.S. China Business Council.
One way or another, payback is going to happen. And the United States is likely to have a lot of help from the rest of the world. If you stick with your brutish, extremist friends, China stands to become a pariah, Olympics notwithstanding. And then all the money we hoped to make with one another will be lost.
So please. For both our sakes, dump Afghanistan.
Sincerely,
Wall Street 
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